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 deterministic model



Rectifying Distribution Shift in Cascaded Precipitation Nowcasting

Ju, Fanbo, Shi, Haiyuan, Ni, Qingjian

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Precipitation nowcasting, which aims to provide high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation forecasts by leveraging current radar observations, is a core task in regional weather forecasting. Recently, the cascaded architecture has emerged as the mainstream paradigm for deep learning-based precipitation nowcasting. This paradigm involves a deterministic model to predict posterior mean, followed by a probabilistic model to generate local stochasticity. However, existing methods commonly overlook the conflation of the systematic distribution shift in deterministic predictions and the local stochasticity. As a result, the distribution shift of the deterministic component contaminates the predictions of the probabilistic component, leading to inaccuracies in precipitation patterns and intensity, particularly over longer lead times. To address this issue, we introduce RectiCast, a two-stage framework that explicitly decouples the rectification of mean-field shift from the generation of local stochasticity via a dual Flow Matching model. In the first stage, a deterministic model generates the posterior mean. In the second stage, we introduce a Rectifier to explicitly learn the distribution shift and produce a rectified mean. Subsequently, a Generator focuses on modeling the local stochasticity conditioned on the rectified mean. Experiments on two radar datasets demonstrate that RectiCast achieves significant performance improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods.





IoT-based Fresh Produce Supply Chain Under Uncertainty: An Adaptive Optimization Framework

Seth, Chirag, Pirnia, Mehrdad, Bookbinder, James H

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fruits and vegetables form a vital component of the global economy; however, their distribution poses complex logistical challenges due to high perishability, supply fluctuations, strict quality and safety standards, and environmental sensitivity. In this paper, we propose an adaptive optimization model that accounts for delays, travel time, and associated temperature changes impacting produce shelf life, and compare it against traditional approaches such as Robust Optimization, Distributionally Robust Optimization, and Stochastic Programming. Additionally, we conduct a series of computational experiments using Internet of Things (IoT) sensor data to evaluate the performance of our proposed model. Our study demonstrates that the proposed adaptive model achieves a higher shelf life, extending it by over 18\% compared to traditional optimization models, by dynamically mitigating temperature deviations through a temperature feedback mechanism. The promising results demonstrate the potential of this approach to improve both the freshness and efficiency of logistics systems an aspect often neglected in previous works.


Graph-based Neural Space Weather Forecasting

Holmberg, Daniel, Zaitsev, Ivan, Alho, Markku, Bouri, Ioanna, Franssila, Fanni, Jeong, Haewon, Palmroth, Minna, Roos, Teemu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate space weather forecasting is crucial for protecting our increasingly digital infrastructure. Hybrid-Vlasov models, like Vlasiator, offer physical realism beyond that of current operational systems, but are too computationally expensive for real-time use. We introduce a graph-based neural emulator trained on Vlasiator data to autoregressively predict near-Earth space conditions driven by an upstream solar wind. We show how to achieve both fast deterministic forecasts and, by using a generative model, produce ensembles to capture forecast uncertainty. This work demonstrates that machine learning offers a way to add uncertainty quantification capability to existing space weather prediction systems, and make hybrid-Vlasov simulation tractable for operational use.